One of my staple cover-to-cover monthlies is Business 2.0. October 2005 issue features "How to ride the Hottest New Trends."
I've heard this following line in two separate podcasts on two different feeds and read it in the introduction of this piece. You've probably heard it recently, too, so here it is in black and white. "[When we think about the future] we tend to overestimate change in the short run, and underestimate it in the long run." Attributed to Roy Amara of the Institute for the Future, the paragraph does provide an excellent follow-up: "Although we expect tomorrow to arrive in a burst of science-fiction flashiness, it often takes longer to arrive. And when it finally does, the real impact of the change is likely to exceed our initial expectations."
Okay, we get it. Can we not hear that quote again for a while please???
You can read the five trends online. I particularly enjoyed Trend #2: Companies Tap Into Consumer Passion, on involving the consumer in marketing and innovation. Espoused on podcasts and blogs and in Seth Godin books for some time, the B2 article provided a thorough summary. With Trend #3: Business Gets a Nervous System, my nerd juices started effusing over the idea of a Starbucks coffee pot reporting that its French roast is getting stale so that rather than having to throw away the java, its price can be slashed to 50-cents and still make a profit. RFID, baby. Bring on the .NET RFID Framework!
Interesting sidebar to the article: 9 Fads to Ignore. 1st item was PODCASTING. "...where are the revenues? Podcasting will continue, but as a business, it's the latest iteration of CB radio." Agreed.